1. Introduction

　　　We’d like to point out two things of the Japanese 2^nd National Communication. The first point is “3.1. Carbon Dioxide Countermeasures”, which explains the technological countermeasures and policies and measures, however it shows no concrete reasons. For example, “the table 3.1〜3.4.” have only the lists of technological countermeasures of the major industries (steel, cement etc.), which don’t show the rate of employment of technologies and their effects. The second point is “4.2.3. Results of Estimates” which shows only BaU (Business as Usual) case by the year 2010. The estimate of Japanese CO2 reduction potential should be shown there as it named “Results of Estimates”.

Here, based on our studies, we’d like to talk about CO2 reduction potentials in Japan and policies and measures to achieve the reductions. In our CO2 reduction potential study, we used a “bottom-up” approach. We broke down the national economy into six sectors: industry, transportation, household, service, waste disposal and power generation, and complied existing information into sector-by-sector inventories of CO2 emissions to calculate the CO2 reduction potentials (“A Study of CO2 Reduction Potentials in Japan, Phase I: Interim Report”, October 1997). Then, we did the study of required polices and measures to achieve the CO2 emission reduction (“Policies and Measures Required to Counteract Global Warming ― Focusing on CO2 reduction−”, May 1998).

2. CASA’s studies results

2.1 Japan Can Achieve a 21% Reduction in CO2 Emissions by 2010 (compared to 1990 levels)

　　　According to our CASA research, CO2 emissions in 2010 will increase 24.5% compared to 1990 levels with the BaU Option, in which no new measures are adopted if we presume high GDP growth like the Japanese National Communication. This option is similar to Japanese MITI’s BaU option, which is 22% increase.

If you take “Technological Measures” Option, in which 91 CO2 emission reduction technologies are introduced (Table 1), 8.1% of CO2 emission reduction is achieved. Thus only technological countermeasures have much effects. Moreover, CO2 emissions could be greatly reduced if manufacturing, consumption, transportation, waste disposal, and other physical activity levels are kept as is or reduced, while solar and wind power generation, etc., are promoted. For instance, CO2 emissions in 2010 could be reduced 21.0% relative to 1990 levels with the “1995 Activity Level Maintained” Option, which is highly feasible considering the current situation; likewise, they could be reduced 32.5% with the “Reduction to 1990 Activity Levels” Option.

Table1: Overview of Options

Option	Technology Implementation	Energy Consumption Activities	Composition of Energy Sources for Power Generation	2010 CO2 Reduction Effect (relative to 1990)
Business as Usual Option (BaU)	no	manufacturing, consumption, transportation, waste disposal and other energy consumption activities increase as predicted by government agencies / commissions and by industry	composition of energy sources for power generation same as 1994	＋24.5%
Technological Measures Option	yes	same as above	composition of power sources for power generation corresponds to the power supply targets of MITI and the Electricity Utility Industry Council	− 8.1%
"1995 Activity Level Maintained" Option	yes	activity levels in all sectors are maintained at 1995 levels	Introduction of solar and wind power generation is 1/4 of the level predicted by the Environment Agency	−21.0%
"Reduction to 1990 Activity Levels" Option	yes	activity levels in all sectors are maintained at 1990 levels	Introduction of solar and wind power generation is 1/2 of the level predicted by the Environment Agency	−32.5%

 

2.2. Required Policies and Measures

Concrete polices and measures are needed to achieve substantial reductions mentioned above. After COP3, Japanese government adopted the “Guideline of Measures to Prevent Global Warming”, and amended a number of laws and determined a number of policies in response to the Kyoto Protocol. However, none of these steps will ensure that Japan complies with its reduction target. We had asserted that prevention of global warming should be specified as an objective of the “Law Concerning the Rational Use of Energy”, but such a provision was not included.

　　　According to our research on Japanese polices and measures, a total of at least 143 policies and measures in all sectors are required to achieve a major reduction in CO2 emissions. Correspondingly, there is a need for amendment or repeal of 79 laws or ordinances, enactment of 5 new laws, and revision of 64 administrative plans (Table 2).

2.3 Cost-effectiveness of the policies and measures to prevent global warming

According to our study, you would save as the result of energy conservation. For example, a net gain (energy cost minus new technologies introduction cost) of 13.5 trillion yen (approximately US$112.5 billion) is to be generated in 2000 and 40.8 trillion yen (approximately US$340 billion) is from 2000 to 2010 when we choose the "1995 level option".
 

Table 2: Policies and Measures to be implemented to Counteract Global Warming

Sector/Field	Policies/Measures to be Implemented
Industrial Sector	17	targets for reduction of energy input per unit of output of factories, which are voluntary, "best-effort" targets under the current Energy Conservation Law, should be made mandatory  introduction of external audits and measures to ensure compliance with the "Voluntary Action Plan on the Environment" of the Keidanren (Federation of Economic Organizations), which is now merely a voluntary declaration by industry  "Time assessment" and other reviews of public works, etc.
Transport Sector	30	review and strengthening of automobile fuel efficiency standards as appropriate  introduction of progressive taxation based on fuel efficiency  measures to give priority road access to car pools and trucks with pooled cargo  restrictions on automotive traffic in designated  areas; abolition of the current System of Specified Revenue Sources for Roads (Doro Tokutei Zaigensei), due to which all automobile-related tax revenues are used for road construction, etc.
Domestic Sector	24	strengthening of standards regarding insulation, etc., of residential buildings  strengthening and wider application of energy efficiency standards for electrical appliances  mandatory eco-labelling; introduction of a "household energy consumption advisor system," etc.
Business Sector	17	establishment of mandatory targets for reducing per-unit energy requirements of office buildings and other business facilities  strengthening and wider application of energy efficiency standards for office appliances, etc.
Energy Conversion Sector	28	reduction in coal-burning thermal power plants, rather than their massive increase as currently planned  conversion to LNG-burning thermal power plants, etc.  introduction of demand side management (DSM)  investment of part of the nuclear power budget, a huge part of which goes unused every year (e.g., 64.1 billion yen in 1995), in development of renewable energy; strengthening of subsidies for establishing solar power generation facilities (currently 1/3 subsidized), etc.
Waste Disposal Sector	12	definition of "manufacturer's liability" regarding waste disposal  definition of business liability to collect containers and packaging  setting of numerical targets for recycling  mandatory installation of power generators for all continuous type garbage incinerators, etc.
Environmental Assessment	15	・Introduction of "global warming assessment" from the planning stage, etc.
Total	143

 
 

3. Policies and Measures

3.1 Introduction of hybrid vehicle

Low energy consumption engine vehicles such as Toyota’s hybrid engine vehicle and Mitsubishi’s GDI engine vehicle are actually in the market. Tax break or tax credit for purchasing these vehicles will be strong measures to increase these types of vehicle's demand in the market.

3.2 Cut down the numbers of Public Construction Projects

In Japan, many needless constructions have been proceeded all over Japan under the name of public construction projects. In fact, these constructions are closely related to Global Warming Issues. Net CO2 emissions from construction sector are reported more or less 1% of the total CO2 emissions in Japan. However, if you include CO2 emission from Iron, cement manufacturing process and transportation etc., the actual emission is 34% of the total.

After Kyoto, Japan still has tremendous difficulties to comply with their commitment of the protocol because Japan has failed to focus on reduction of energy consumption as Japan's policies and measures for prevention of climate change. In fact, Obuchi Administration has introduced the expansion of public construction projects to stimulate Japanese economy. These new public construction projects are all energy intensive projects, which might sweep out all the efforts for the climate protections that Japanese government has made. We strongly suggest that Japan's economic policies should integrate with climate policies. Japan should put more money to renewable energy and public transportation system than ongoing energy intensive and development oriented type of projects.

4. Conclusion

As you know now, Japan could achieve substantial CO2 reduction with domestic actions. First of all, clear reduction objective and the effectiveness of the concrete policies and measures for prevention of the global warming should be addressed by the government. Then, all the data and the methods of the policies and measures should be revealed from the government for keeping the transparency.

Moreover, there is no law for the ratification of the protocol in Japan and ensure the compliance of the Japan's 6% commitment yet. That is why public construction project types of economic policies that contradict to the climate protection policies are still adopted. Establishment of the legal system that guarantees the Kyoto Protocol is urgently in need.